Soner Cagaptay: Will Turkey Help Washington If Russia Invades Ukraine?

Source:Washington Institute Date:28Jan2022

On one hand, Turkey is keen on maintaining the balance of power in the Black Sea littoral. It also opposes Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea, due in part to its sympathies for the indigenous Turkic Tatar community. Together with growing Turkish-Ukrainian defense cooperation, these factors would seem to bode well for Ankara backing Washington in the event of war.

On the other hand, Turkey has an ingrained policy of avoiding direct conflict with its most powerful military neighbor, and the level of rapport and diplomatic engagement between Presidents Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Vladimir Putin has grown substantially since the 2016 coup attempt in Turkey. Thus, while Ankara may provide quiet assistance to Ukraine if war breaks out, it is unlikely to match the robust public support exhibited by Britain, Poland, and other key governments in a potential U.S.-led coalition.