As Peace Negotiations Advance, Armenia And Azerbaijan Are Going It Alone

Source:Radio Free Europe Date:09Feb2024

In their efforts to finally resolve their long-running conflict over the Nagorno-Karabakh region, can Armenia and Azerbaijan go it alone?

Now, though, with Nagorno-Karabakh back in Azerbaijani hands after a swift military offensive in September, Baku and Yerevan have been increasingly conducting their negotiations one-to-one. In December, they reached an unprecedented bilateral agreement to exchange prisoners and for Armenia’s support for Azerbaijan’s bid to host the COP29 climate conference. Senior officials from the two countries have been holding low-profile bilateral meetings. Diplomats continue to exchange drafts of a peace agreement back and forth and hold occasional meetings of a commission on the Armenia-Azerbaijan border itself, most recently on January 31.

But, the talks are leading nowhere:

Recent signals from Baku, including Aliyev’s statements on Yerevan and Syunik, have dampened hopes in Armenia that any sort of agreement will be signed soon, despite the continuing exchanges of draft agreements.

What does Baku want, anyway?

With or without negotiators, Armenia and Azerbaijan still have to overcome disagreements on other critical issues, including how to demarcate their shared border; determining the fate of several small, Soviet-drawn enclaves; and how to manage new transportation links to Azerbaijan’s exclave of Naxcivan. The agreement being negotiated is reportedly short and thin on specifics and aims just to be a framework statement of principles, like mutual recognition of one another’s territorial integrity.