Turkey-Iran Rivalry in the Changing Geopolitics of the South Caucasus

Source:SWP Date:24Apr2024

Dated, but a harbinger of things to come.   Turkey and Iran will also compete in Iraq, if the Peace Corridor “idea” ever turns into a well-funded project.

On the one hand, Iran is deeply frustrated by Turkey’s growing trade and energy co­operation with Azerbaijan and Georgia, as it has chipped away at Iran’s economic significance – or relevance – in the region, especially in the face of US sanc­tions that are already isolating Iran from global markets. On the other hand, Iran has been increasingly worried about what it perceives as Turkey’s “pan-Turkist” agenda in the South Caucasus and Central Asia, fearing the potential ramifications this could have with respect to its own Turkic/Azeri-populated regions.

From a broader perspective, Tehran’s concerns are amplified by the perception that Erdoğan, bolstered by his recent elec­toral triumph, is adopting policies that Iran sees as overly ambitious if not expansionist. For Iran, this stretches beyond the South Caucasus, involving other regions such as Iraq and Syria, where the two countries have competing interests. The possibility that Turkey’s post-election foreign policy might gravitate towards greater Western cooperation further intensifies Iran’s concerns.

Nonetheless, two prevailing factors are forcing Iran to employ a cautious approach to Turkish involvement in the South Cau­casus. Firstly, already facing sanctions, Iran relies heavily on economic collaboration with Turkey, thus making a direct conflict with Ankara untenable. Secondly, Russia’s apparent accommodation of Turkish inter­ests in the South Caucasus leaves Iran with­out substantial external backing in its oppo­si­tion to Ankara’s regional ambitions.