Sinan Ciddi: The perils of a Turkish-Syrian rapprochement

Source:FDD Date:28Jul2024

While the likelihood of concessions from either side is unclear, the possibility of this meeting indicates some willingness to find common ground that benefits both leaders’ power projection and legitimacy. Both Ankara and Damascus have an interest in curtailing the autonomy of Kurdish groups in northeast Syria, which could be a driving force in negotiations. Both governments could also be seeking economic gains by removing barriers to the flow of official commerce and trade.

A sour ce has claimed that an Assad-Erdogan rapprochement could hinge on a joint Syrian-Turkish military offensive to rout the SDF. This would result in Turkey’s goal of eliminating the so-called “Kurdish threat,” while Assad would regain further regime control over Syrian territory. It is all hypothetical right now, as both Ankara and Damascus will likely wait to see the outcome of the US election. Erdogan’s desired result would be for a second Trump administration, which he thinks he can convince to withdraw US troops, clearing the way for a military offensive against the SDF.