Amatzia Baram: Iran’s New President Is a ‘Reformist’; Will It Matter?

Source:Middle East forum Date:28Jul2024

By allowing the election of a reformist president, the regime did not change its radical nature. The decision to allow, if reluctantly, the election of a reformist was made because it offered the regime a few advantages. More voters came forth, meaning more ostensible public support for the regime.

The decision to allow, if reluctantly, the election of a reformist was made because it offered the regime a few advantages. More voters came forth, meaning more ostensible public support for the regime.

Since the election, the regime also appears more moderate when viewed from abroad, its unrelenting radicalism notwithstanding. If Mr. Khamenei decides to somewhat relax the state’s domestic security coercion, the new president will be supportive. A reformist president will not join hands with the Paydari Front nor try to push the IRGC toward dangerous adventures against Israel and the U.S.

Mr. Pezeshkian is also certain to support Mr. Khamenei if he decides to allow a withdrawal of Hezbollah from the Israeli frontier. Tehran assumes such a move will make little difference, because soon afterward Hezbollah will return back to the border, as happened after the 2006 war. Finally, if Supreme Leader Khamenei, the IRGC and a few other relevant state institutions decide to settle the nuclear dispute with the U.S., thus boosting the economy, the path will now be clearer.