Armenia Navigates a Path Away From Russia
Source:Carnegie Date:16Jul2024
In a process that began in 2018 and accelerated in 2022, relations between Armenia and Russia have begun to break down. Formal institutional relations remain in place and high-level contacts continue. The economic relationship has become stronger since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. However, this cannot conceal the fact that the Armenian public’s confidence in Russia has collapsed and that the Armenian government, led by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, is actively seeking to reduce its dependence on Russia.
Given the constraints of Armenia’s geography and its continuing institutional ties to Russia, the Western emphasis is on supporting a peace process between Armenia and Azerbaijan. This is because decisions made by Azerbaijan and Türkiye will probably have the greatest impact on the degree to which Armenia continues to depend on Russia. Since 2020 there have been negotiations over an Armenia-Azerbaijan bilateral peace agreement that would potentially see a historic normalization of relations between the countries. Türkiye has made it clear that it is waiting for the green light from Baku to proceed with opening the closed land border and establishing diplomatic relations.
The outcome of this process will determine whether Armenia’s borders with these two countries open or remain closed. Should the normalization process fail, Armenia will remain isolated—and there is also the possibility of renewed conflict with Azerbaijan. A successful process would mean Armenia would have more options and would be able to lessen its historical dependence on Russia and pursue a stronger partnership with the West. A continuation of the status quo gives Russia more opportunities to reapply its traditional levers of control.