Murat's Musings

Turkey’s Elections: Possibility, Peril or More of the Same?

Source:Bipartisan Policy Center Date:18Jun2018

In this three-part report, the Bipartisan Policy Center of the US looks at the upcoming Turkish elections and come up with recommendations for the US administration. The tone is rather gloomy and

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Bloomberg on investor sentiment turning skittish

Date:19May2018

This overview piece by Bloomberg’s Istanbul Bureau Chief, B. Harvey, regarding the recent deterioration in investor sentiment toward Turkey is well worth the read, especially for starters.

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Turkey’s Macro Quandary: Politics Meets the Trilemmas

Date:15May2018

We’ve been absent for a while again, so let us make a return by offering a simple narrative that may help to understand Turkey’s current economic troubles and lira’s constant

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A short macro presentation

Date:01Mar2018

I have given a short talk on the Turkish economy, basically suggesting that given the shifting global landscape (i.e. toward slightly tighter money and higher longer term rates) and the rising

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Concluding Statement of the IMF Staff, of the Article IV Mission

Date:19Feb2018

The summary of the statement speaks for itself — “…the economy now faces signs of overheating: a positive output gap, inflation well above target, and a wider current account

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Some thoughts on the Turkish saving rate

Date:15Jan2018

I just gave a talk at a FODER (Turkish Financial Literacy Foundation) conference, which was the third of its kind (here is the conference link in Turkish). The conference was on Turkey’s

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Two Turkish macro myths, in two graphs

Date:04Jan2018

High growth in Turkey – as in last year’s steroid-driven (estimated) 6.5%+ rate – typically comes at a cost in the form of higher “imbalances”, i.e. markedly higher inflation and current account

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BFTB: A maiden post, on 2017’s macro surprises…

Date:27Dec2017

My next-door neighbor on this website and long-time friend and collaborator Atilla warned me, rightly so, about my absence here since October (and how it reflects poorly on the seriousness and

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September Trade Deficit: Core imports brake a record, as exports stagnate

Date:31Oct2017

Today’s release of September trade data by Turkstat was exactly in line with the preliminary Customs Ministry Data released in early October, with the 12-month rolling deficit rising

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TWF to the rescue?

Date:23Oct2017

Bloomberg has recently reported that Turkey’s newly established Sovereign Wealth Fund, or the Turkish Wealth Fund (TWF) as it is called, is in talks with foreign lenders, including the

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