Murat's Musings
Interesting decoupling between CDS and the lira…
Date:13Oct2017
Upon a query from a friend, I was playing with the data this morning, and noted this interesting divergence between Turkey’s CDS rate and the lira in the latest bout of lira weakness. In
When I see editorials, news flow…
Date:12Oct2017
…like this and this, I think of these two charts below: a current account deficit heading toward $40 billion yet less than fully financed by capital inflows, and a short-term debt stock (by
A short article [in Turkish] on some aspects of the Q2 GDP data
Date:27Sep2017
We’ve written a short piece for BHT, as Turkey Data Monitor. The article is in Turkish, but all we are saying is that: 1) these growth rates are not all that surprising , given the
It’s the credit, stupid!
Date:17Sep2017
Turkey’s new GDP series, released last December, has become a constant source of contention, debate and even agony amongst the analyst community. The latest comments coming from Commerzbank
Mystery of the Missing Inflation
Date:14Sep2017
Nouriel Robini wrote on this very hot and pertinent topic in a Project Syndicate column, which is worth taking stock. His take? No one knows what the causes of “lowflation” are, so
Chinese Debt: Should we be or not be scared?
Date:30Aug2017
Concerns over the Chinese debt-growth nexus appear to have subsided again, which is greatly helping the broader EM environment. China is somehow managing to grow at 6%+ rate (IMF forecast for
Fischer’s lunch with the FT…and links on low rates
Date:20Aug2017
Fed Vice–Chair Stan Fischer has had lunch with the FT, which is featured in FT’s August 19-20 weekend issue. Lots of interesting stuff… In the interview, “Fischer agrees with Greenspan, saying
Robots and Jobs…
Date:15Aug2017
This “robot and jobs” stuff is getting exceedingly interesting especially for old-fashioned economists such as myself (who only know how to work with macro “identities”). This
US Economy, the laggard?
Date:31Jul2017
“The clear message is that the U.S. — the richest nation on Earth, as is frequently proclaimed, although it’s actually not the richest per capita — is increasingly
Mixed findings on lira’s fair value
Date:28Jul2017
Lira has depreciated sharply in recent years — by some 25% in nominal terms (against a ‘basket’ that comprises 50% euro and 50% dollar) over the past year or so, and some 50% in