COMING TO TERMS WITH THE LOSS OF TURKEY

Source:War on the Rocks Date:08Jun2024

Solid analysis.

More broadly, the challenge remains that Erdogan’s ideology and domestic legitimacy rest on anti-Westernism and anti-Americanism. As shown when he won re-election in 2023, this rhetoric serves Erdogan well in his eternal struggle to hold on to political power. And to the extent Erdogan is looking beyond this to securing his legacy, this will also lead him to prioritize his oft-stated goal of securing Turkish influence vis-á-vis the West.

Today, transactionalism is working. Washington appears to have recognized that with shared interests dwindling, it need not prioritize cooperation with Turkey as a goal in itself. In doing so, policymakers have tacitly agreed to the perspective often voiced by Turkish interlocutors: Turkey cannot be lost because its policy is driven by its own interests. Where U.S.-Turkish interests overlap, whether in Africa, the Middle East or Eurasia, Turkey will work toward these interests without the need for American incentives. Where U.S.-Turkish interests diverge, Turkey will do what it wants regardless of what America tells it. As a result, U.S. policymakers can stop worrying about who lost Turkey. Ankara will find its own way, and Washington will find what it needs in the Middle East elsewhere.