‘It’s 50-50’: Erdoğan risks defeat in Turkey’s knife-edge election

Source:Politico Date:24Mar2023

For years, the president’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) has exuded confidence ahead of elections — and justifiably so. In an almost uninterrupted sequence, Erdoğan has won two presidential contests, three referendums to amend the constitution and five parliamentary elections. But today, things are different. Now, even the Turkish president’s supporters acknowledge that, after over 20 years in power, Erdoğan’s appeal is waning. And although he romped to victory 2018, it is significant that the CHP won the crucial mayoral elections in the big cities of Ankara, Istanbul and Izmir the following year.

Editor’s Comment:  A fresh approach to election forecasting. Good tips from AKP insiders