Tol-Yaycioglu: Yes, Erdogan’s Rule Might Actually End This Weekend

Source:Foreign Policy Date:10May2023

Fast-forward to 2023. To win the election, Erdogan has to capture more than the 26 million votes he secured in 2018 because Turkey’s voting population has grown. His problem is that he faces a dramatically different political context that makes that task very difficult. The failed coup’s rally-around-the-leader effect is long gone. The wave of nationalism that Erdogan once rode has come back to haunt him: There is now a growing nationalist opposition to Erdogan, with several nationalist parties peeling away votes from his far-right ally, the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP).

The Turkish economy has plunged into a major crisis, with runaway double-digit inflation and soaring food prices. Most importantly, the opposition is more united than it has ever been: Six parties have come together under the Nation Alliance banner and a single presidential candidate, CHP leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu, with additional backing from the pro-Kurdish HDP. Altogether, Kilicdaroglu commands 50.9 percent of the vote, according to the latest poll.

Very much on the point.  The Editor doesn’t care  much about forecasts when choosing an addition to this website, it is the context and the assumptions that matter more. Tol and Yaycigolu constrcuted the correct context in which elections will take place.

My view?  Watch my video