What has Erdogan learned from Soleimani’s killing?

Source:al Monitor Date:12Jan2020

This article by veteran Turkish political affairs reporter Mrs Pinar Trembley is a jewel. It covers not only Turkey-Iran dynamics, but how skillfully Erdogan needs to balance Iran vs Trump.

Tanchum added the Libya factor in Ankara’s decision-making, saying, “As long as Turkey does not significantly undermine US policy toward Iran, the US unlikely to directly challenge Turkey’s operations in Libya.”

If the United States enforces further sanctions against Iran and possibly Iraq, as Trump suggested, Turkey could be even further pressed to make a choice. For sanctions to work effectively, the United States tries to compel compliance from all other players, particularly neighbors.

Tanchum summarized Turkish-Iranian economic relations by saying, “In 2018, Iran was Turkey’s sixth largest trading partner, with the total volume of trade being slightly less than half the Turkey-US bilateral trade volume. As a result of the 2019 maximum pressure sanctions, Iranian capital has been flowing to Turkey. Iran accounts for the largest number of new foreign joint ventures in Turkey, for example.”